关键词: 贝叶斯定理, 统计证据, 判例研究, 英国, 司法鉴定

Abstract: Bayesian statistical reasoning, based on prior knowledge and evidence information, conducts logical reasoning and probability estimation of the possibility of an event. It has developed not only internationally into a standard logical framework for the evaluation of forensic evidence, but also its likelihood rate model helps to make the formation of a judge's inner conviction explicit, standardized, and scientific, which is of great significance for preventing judges from abusing their discretionary power. In recent years, although the academic community in China has gradually increased its introduction and research on this type of statistical evidence or reasoning method, there seems to be an attitude of avoidance towards this type of evidence in judicial practice, and there is also a lack of relevant research. In contrast, although Britain is cautious about Bayesian statistical evidence, it has worked out a set of effective rules through trial and error in practice. Based on the current situations, we should try to promote the research by multiple occupational groups from different perspectives, and strive to reach a consensus on the application of Bayesian statistical evidence as soon as possible.

Key words: Bayes’ theorem, statistical evidence, case study, Britain, forensic appraisal