Abstract: The existing evaluation methods for fingerprint evidence mainly rely on the forensic experts’ experience. There is no unified criteria for the appraisal opinion, which leads to frequent false appraisals, and is questioned by experts in related fields. In order to promote the objective evaluation of fingerprint appraisal rather then empirical one, domestic and foreign forensic scientists have been exploring scientific methods for evaluating fingerprint evidence, avoiding the use of absolute expressions such as “identification”, “exclusion”, and “inconclusive” in expert opinions. They have been working on building a scientific evaluation system for fingerprint evidence, spreading ideas and laying a foundation for the scientific evaluation of forensic individual identify evidence, and then promoting the development of fingerprint evidence in evidence admissibility and factual adjudication. Starting from the establishment of fingerprint evidence evaluation methods, this paper analyzed the problems caused by lacking of scientific validity, and expounded constructing the scientific evaluation system for fingerprint evidence based on likelihood ratio model, hoping to provide some reference for establishing a more scienctific evaluation system for fingerprint evidence.

Key words: fingerprint, appraisal opinion, likelihood ratio, evidence evaluation

摘要： 现有指纹证据评价方法主要依赖于鉴定人的自身经验，作出的鉴定意见没有科学的统一标准，导致错误鉴定时有发生，也愈发受到相关领域专家的质疑。为促进指纹鉴定评价从经验走向科学，国内外法庭科学专家一直在探索科学的指纹证据评价方法，避免鉴定意见中采用“认定”“否定”和“无法得出结论”这类绝对性的表述方式，构建指纹证据的科学评价体系，为法庭科学个体识别证据的科学评价拓展思路和奠定基础，进而促进指纹在证据采信和事实裁定方面的发展。从指纹证据评价方法的建立出发，剖析了因缺乏科学有效性而导致的问题并分析了相关原因，阐述了构建基于似然比模型的指纹证据科学评价体系的路径方法，旨在为指纹证据评价从经验走向科学提供一定的参考。

关键词: 指纹, 鉴定意见, 似然比, 证据评价