Abstract: Uncertainty is pervasive in forensic science research, inevitable in the practice of forensic expertise, and intimately linked to the reliability of appraisal opinions. Therefore, it is imperative to use forensic statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty in forensic science so as to ensure the scientific reliability of evidence evaluation and analysis, as well as that of the results in forensic examination report. Ultimately, this will strengthen the credibility of judicial expertise. This article addresses the issue of uncertainty quantification in forensic science from the perspective of forensic statistics, categorizes the uncertainty, outlines the methods for uncertainty quantification in the procedure of evidence evaluation and analysis. Additionally, based on the concept of quantifying the likelihood ratio（LR） of the entire appraisal process, this article proposes the prerequisites and preparations for the application of the forensic statistical methods in judicial practice.

Key words: uncertainty, forensic statistics, appraisal opinion, likelihood ratio（LR）, Bayesian analysis

摘要： 不确定性在法庭科学的研究中普遍存在，在司法鉴定的实践中亦不可避免，且与意见可靠性是共生关系。因此，将法庭统计学方法用于法庭科学/司法鉴定中的不确定性量化，是保证证据评价与证据分析的科学性的客观需求，有助于提升鉴定意见的可靠性，进而有助于提升司法鉴定的公信力。从法庭科学中的不确定性量化问题出发，从法庭统计学的角度对不确定性进行分类，总结了不同类别的不确定性的量化方法及其在证据评价与分析中的作用。同时，根据鉴定全过程似然比量化控制的理念，提出了前述法庭统计学方法应用于司法实践所需的准备工作。

关键词: 不确定性, 法庭统计学, 鉴定意见, 似然比, 贝叶斯分析