Abstract: The reliability of appraisal opinions is closely related to whether they can repeatedly obtain consistent results. Uncertain appraisal opinions, as a normal phenomenon of appraisal results, have reliability if the uncertain results can be repeated or consistent during re-appraisal, meeting the requirements of scientific appraisal. The reliability of the confirmation of uncertain appraisal opinions with positive and negative tendencies varies depending on the direction of the results, which to some extent affects the admissibility of the appraisal opinions as evidence. However, the method of cross-examination through falsification can enhance or weaken its credibility and obtain the result of validity. If the appraisal opinion cannot be falsified and has scientific validity, it can play a role in determining the facts of the case. When reviewing uncertain appraial opinions， opinion that does not conform to science should be excluded first, and then review opinions reliability. The consistency of repetition is checked through program control to ensure the scientificity of the appraisal. Judicial practice should be vigilant in excluding all uncertain appraisal opinions. And theoretically, it is also necessary to abandon the bias that all uncertain appraisal opinions are unreliable, and return them to the essence of scientific appraisal and their inherent functions.

Key words: appraisal , opinion, uncertainty, reliability, scientificity, effectiveness

摘要： 鉴定意见的可靠性与其能否重复获得一致性的结果密切相关。不确定性鉴定意见作为鉴定结果的一种正常现象，如若其不确定的结果在再鉴定中重复一致，符合司法鉴定科学性的要求，则具有可靠性。倾向肯定和倾向否定的不确定性鉴定意见因结果的方向不同，其证实的可靠程度存在差异，在一定意义上会影响鉴定意见作为证据的可采性，但通过证伪的质证方式可增强或者减弱其可信性，获得有效性的结果。如若不确定性鉴定意见无法证伪且具有科学性，在认定案件事实上则能发挥证明的作用。审查判断不确定性鉴定意见首先排除不符合科学性的意见，然后对其可靠性进行审查判断，并经过程序控制检验其重复的一致性，确保司法鉴定的科学性。司法实践应当警惕一概排除不确定性鉴定意见的做法，理论上也需要摒弃不确定性鉴定意见不可靠的偏见，使其回归司法鉴定科学性的本质并发挥固有的功能。

关键词: 鉴定意见, 不确定性, 可靠性, 科学性, 有效性