Abstract: Bayesian statistical reasoning, based on prior knowledge and evidence information, conducts logical reasoning and probability estimation of the possibility of an event. It has developed not only internationally into a standard logical framework for the evaluation of forensic evidence, but also its likelihood rate model helps to make the formation of a judge's inner conviction explicit, standardized, and scientific, which is of great significance for preventing judges from abusing their discretionary power. In recent years, although the academic community in China has gradually increased its introduction and research on this type of statistical evidence or reasoning method, there seems to be an attitude of avoidance towards this type of evidence in judicial practice, and there is also a lack of relevant research. In contrast, although Britain is cautious about Bayesian statistical evidence, it has worked out a set of effective rules through trial and error in practice. Based on the current situations, we should try to promote the research by multiple occupational groups from different perspectives, and strive to reach a consensus on the application of Bayesian statistical evidence as soon as possible.

Key words: Bayes’ theorem, statistical evidence, case study, Britain, forensic appraisal

摘要： 贝叶斯统计推理基于先验知识和证据信息，对某一事件发生的可能性进行逻辑推理和概率估计。其不仅正在发展成为国际法庭科学证据评价的标准逻辑框架，且其似然率模型有助于法官心证形成过程的明示化、规范化和科学化，对防止法官滥用自由裁量权具有重要意义。近年来，虽然我国学界对该种统计证据或推理方式的介绍和研究逐渐增多，但司法审判实践中似乎对该种证据采取回避态度，亦缺少相关研究成果。与之相对，英国虽对贝叶斯统计证据持谨慎态度，但在实践中不断试错，摸索出一套较为有效的裁判规则。我国应当在现有基础上，努力促成多个职业群体从不同角度对该问题进行研究，争取就贝叶斯统计证据的应用早日达成共识。

关键词: 贝叶斯定理, 统计证据, 判例研究, 英国, 司法鉴定